Monday, November 3, 2014

4 Down Territory: What we learned about CFB Week 10

Each week we seem to learn something new and gain perspective on teams, conferences, and the overall picture of college football becomes more clear. This week my main takeaways are:

1) SEC vs PAC-12 vs Big 12

The conference that is the best of the bunch probably depends on which lenses you are seeing out of or which part of the country you are from. All have strengths and all have weaknesses but one thing is for certain in my eyes: The winner of the CFB playoff comes from one of these conferences and yes I would bet money on that!

What about MSU, OSU, ND, or FSU? I think FSU is the best shot to get in the playoff period, however I think much like Auburn last year (and this year) they are on borrowed time. If MSU or OSU gets in I think things could get interesting however I have a feeling that "The Committee" will select the champions of the PAC, Big 12, and SEC. If FSU loses all bets are off but as long as there is still a few games to be played including an unimpressive ACC Championship I still think "The Committee" will choose a 1-loss FSU over Ohio State however maybe not Michigan State. I think the Oregon loss is forgivable for MSU however the VaTech loss leaves too much room for FSU to lose to a "better or similar opponent" thus ultimately being picked over OSU. Sorry ND fans but unless both, you run the table and ASU/USC wins the PAC-12 I just don't see you in any scenario...and I don't see that happening.

2) Oregon, TCU, and Auburn make Statements

Auburn looked as it did in last years title game run, living on the edge but being good enough to get the W. Last year the immaculate deflection and the end of the Bama game and this year the gruesome and very unfortunate play that probably cost Ole Miss more than a playoff spot being Laquon Treadwell's career. I do sincerely wish Laquon the best possible recovery! As far as Auburn's concerned, no matter what I'll never fault a team for getting it done and that's exactly what Auburn has done.

TCU looks good and with K-State as the biggest hurdle left for the Horned Frogs I put them at a better than not chance of making the playoffs. They went into Morgantown and beat a good football team that only lost by 10 to the Crimson Tide on the road and already has wins over Baylor and Oklahoma.

Oregon looks like they've got their mojo back and from this fan that means the coaches are "Earning Their Pay"! After fixing their "Oregon Problem" (apparently Mark Helfrich agrees with this blog), the nation is now watching to see if this Ducks team is going to have their annual November letdown or if they are what they appear to be and that's the best team in CFB. I think if they win this week at Utah they can punch their ticket (knock on wood) to the 1st Annual College Football Playoff.

3) Ohio State vs Michigan State is what we think

For as much grief as the B1G gets nationally the upcoming game between Sparty and the Buckeye's has significant playoff implications. Earlier I said that OSU would not make it to the playoffs because of the loss to Va Tech however if they can come up big against Sparty there may be a chance...maybe... Either way its a big, nationally relevant game but I have no lean as of now and do look forward to watching some film from both teams this week.

And Finally...

4) Parity in CFB is real

Parity in CFB may never have been more apparent than this year. With only two undefeated teams left going into week 11 there are just no certainties anymore. Alabama is 1-3 against its last 4 Top-25 opponents yet still many people are talking about them being the best team in the country. I don't think going into Tiger Stadium this Saturday bodes well for them but at the same time I don't think LSU is very good (See Auburn's dismantling of LSU 41-7 earlier this year) or maybe Auburn isn't very good (See Miss St dismantling of Auburn 38-23) or maybe they are all good at times and not so good at other times (I think that's called matchups). I have been one of the guys thinking the Tide are pretenders and the last two Ole Miss losses doesn't necessarily point to the contrary. I still think ASU is a pretender out west and playing a Utah team that took them to the brink without Dres Anderson sure doesn't make me feel good with the Irish coming to Tempe. 3-5 (0-4) Indiana beating a 7-2 SEC team sure makes me think the SEC could be overrated or the B1G underrated whichever your flavor but what do we really know as that logic would say that BC's win over USC would point to the ACC being stronger than the PAC-12 at least in the middle of all these conferences there is some clarity...or is there. Maybe Arizona isn't that good or Oregon isn't that good or maybe its just matchups...again...I guess we will wait until the Playoffs to find out "who's who" as a good friend of mine said earlier this week. Even though only one team will make it to the promise land we can all enjoy the ride!

Until next time!

The Fan


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