Wednesday, November 5, 2014

College Football Playoffs Today: Mississippi State vs Oregon


It seems as though Mississippi State is the consensus #1 from the Polls and CFP Committee so I thought it would be interesting to compare the teams statistically since they have some similarities. Both teams have Heisman Trophy worthy QB's, High Powered Offenses, and are in the thick of the College Football Playoff race. There are so many ways to look at stats that I've narrowed it down to what I think are some of the key metrics which are Yards Per Play, Turnover Margin, Scoring Offense, Scoring Defense, broken down by games vs Current Top 25 Teams and Games vs FBS Teams with current winning records.  

Stats vs FBS Teams that Currently have a Winning Record

Record: MSU 6-0 Oregon 5-1
Offensive YPP: Oregon 6.89 MSU 6.74 
Defensive YPP: Oregon 5.64 MSU 5.85 
Turnover Margin: Oregon 1.17 MSU .33 
Scoring Offense: Oregon 43.5 MSU 41.2  
Scoring Defense: MSU 25.2 Oregon 27.5

Stats vs Currently Ranked Top 25 Teams: 

Record: MSU 2-0 (LSU and Auburn) Oregon 2-1 (UCLA, Michigan State, and Arizona)
Offensive YPP: MSU 6.74 Oregon 6.69
Defensive YPP: Oregon 5.80 MSU 5.81
Turnover Margin: Oregon 1.33 MSU -.50
Scoring Offense: Oregon 37.3 MSU 36
Scoring Defense: MSU 26 Oregon 29.3 

Comparing Competition

LSU Total Offensive Rank #65 YPP Defensive Rank YPP #65 Scoring Defense Rank #4
Auburn Total Offensive Rank #17 Defensive Rank YPP #54 Scoring Defensive Rank #35

UCLA Total Offensive Rank #20 Defensive Rank YPP #45 Scoring Defensive Rank #77
Michigan State Offensive Rank #10 Defensive Rank YPP #15 Scoring Defensive Rank #22
Arizona Total Offensive Rank #14 Defensive Rank YPP #85 Scoring Defensive Rank #72

I'll leave it up to you to draw conclusions but they seem to be fairly close at this point in the season at least from a statistical point of view. If the playoff was set today this is the matchup we would be talking about. My feeling is this matchup isn't going to happen but at least we can dream.

The Fan! 




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