Thursday, November 13, 2014

Week 12 Predictions, Week 11 Review, Playoff Reaction

Whoops! Kaelin Clay with the most infamous play of the season

"I sit alone in my four cornered room staring at candles..." if you can tell me the artist of that line then you probably will remember a time in college football dominated by teams like Nebraska, Florida, Washington, Michigan, and Miami. Still you had FSU and Alabama as powers back then as well but for the most part times have changed and so has the format of how we choose our champion. For the most part we are going to try to settle it on the field with a long overdue and highly anticipated playoff however what we are learning is who should participate in the playoff is still highly subjective. I'm not sure fans will be satisfied until it moves to an 8-12 team playoff which to me would be not only be fair but also put a lot of heartache to rest with fans of college football. However that is a long ways out and we have a four team playoff to talk about so lets get started.

Playoff Ranking:



Final Four is the ultimate Holiday Gift for College Football Fans


1) Mississippi State - I don't think many people have a gripe about this one and I sure don't as they haven't done anything to make me think otherwise. I do think that their wins speak for themselves however the non conference schedule makes me think they probably don't have as much wiggle room as many believe. MSU has shown some vulnerability defensively and I think are starting to see how much harder it is being the hunted vs the hunter. This is where teams like Alabama, FSU, Oklahoma, LSU, and Oregon have been for quite a while now and it takes a different mentality to do it year in and year out. We'll see what this Bulldogs team is made of this week in Tuscaloosa but for now they deserve to be right where they are at until they show us otherwise.

2) Oregon - I have some slightly mixed emotions about this one. I think the Ducks have played a tougher schedule than FSU and I think they have a better body of work, however FSU has played a good enough schedule and proven they can keep winning regardless of style points. Another consideration is that the ACC might be better than we give it credit for and going undefeated in any conference two consecutive seasons is an almost unimaginable feat. On the other hand I like that the committee has shown that strength of schedule matters and they are willing to consider more than just W-L when it comes to overall selection. So I agree but that may change if FSU wins convincingly at Miami this weekend.

3) FSU - They are winning ugly but they are still winning. I think this weekend we will find out a lot about FSU as they face a talented and highly motivated Miami squad. If they win in impressive fashion I think they will jump back into the #2 spot and deservedly so. It will tell us if FSU is just playing down to its competition or if their seemingly never ending supply of borrowed time comes due but any win in this game will be a good win even if its ugly.

4) TCU - To me the committee got this one wrong because I personally think that TCU is a better pick than Alabama to date however I also think that Baylor should be ahead of TCU. Don't get me wrong I think TCU is a really good football team and should be ahead of Alabama however the one point that I really have a hard time with as far as Baylor is concerned is the head to head should matter. To me it really ends the speculation of "what would happen if" because you got to see it on the field. I feel like people are discounting that win because of how it happened but it HAPPENED! If that wasn't enough Baylor also has a way more impressive win vs Oklahoma. Baylor absolutely "woodshedded" the Sooners and I walked away from that one thinking if they aren't ahead of TCU now how are they gonna get there? I guess it will come down to how well they play against K-State on December 6th. For now I guess we'll see how it plays out.

Some other thoughts that jump out are Auburn at 9 seems forgiving... ASU at 6 also seems forgiving as well... ND at 18 seems high considering their schedule lacks a quality win...and Michigan State being #12 and Arizona #14 seems odd considering the Wildcats performance compared to the Spartans performance vs Oregon...


What we learned in Week 11

Kyle Allen managed only 21 points and 106 yards
Passing vs ULM but improved dramatically
against the former #3 Auburn Defense


Speaking for myself I learned that the only thing I really know is how much I don't know...Just think about that for a minute...My predictions from week 11 were 2-3 winning Oregon and TCU but losing Sparty, LSU, and Notre Dame (in embarrassing fashion). So as good as my week 10 predictions were, my week 11 picks were equally as bad. We learned that Auburn isn't a team of destiny, that Kyle Allen is more Kyle Football than Kenny Hill is Kenny Trill, that even if you win at Rice Eccles you can lose as well, that Alabama only needs 50 seconds to turn momentum, that LSU's 15 yard penalty could very well have cost them the game, that Trevone Boykin is a legitimate Heisman candidate, that the B1G could still be relevant in the playoff picture, that Sparty struggles against dual threat QB's just like the rest of us, that Kirk Herbstreit is the knee-jerk master when it comes to his rankings, that ASU is capable of turning the switch on and off then on again in the same game, and finally that parity and a playoff is making college football more interesting not less...at least for this Fan.



Week 12 Predictions


Biggest game of the weekend and perhaps season but I have a
feeling the Bulldogs will escape Tuscaloosa

I said last week I didn't see an upset as big as the previous weeks and then A&M delivered one of the most shocking upsets of 2014. With that in mind and several teams on upset alert this weekend 50% correct picks is again the goal here. For those of you that have different opinions I'd love to hear them!

Favorites:

Ohio State d Minnesota (Possible trap game but Ohio State overcomes a possible slow start)
Duke d Va Tech (Duke too much for the lowly Hokes)
TCU d Kansas (Just picked this one to pad my stats)
Arizona d Washington (if UW had an offense they could win this game...if...)
Notre Dame d Northwestern (Notre Dame is really good against average teams)
Michigan State d Maryland (Possible trap game, Ohio State could beat MSU twice)
Florida d South Carolina (We'll see how bad Muschamp wants to keep his job or if Spurrier really does want to come back to The Swamp)
Wisconsin d Nebraska (Wisky, Whiskey, Whisky, either way will be too much for Nebraska)

Underdogs:

Arkansas d LSU (Arkansas had a week off and Tigers licking their wounds gives Bielema his first Conference victory)
Cal d USC (Shouldn't happen but Cal's offense is really good. As long as Cal's defense gets one stop per quarter they can win this game)
Utah d Stanford (Great defensive battle, Utah's offense is difference and K.Clay will hold  the ball from his first TD pass of the game all the way to the sidelines)
Auburn d UGA (UGA gets brunt end of an irritated Auburn team)
Missouri d A&M (Let down game for A&M and Mizzou's D is nasty)
Oregon State d ASU (Shocker in Corvallis, I've bet against ASU for the last three weeks and dammit if I'm going to stop now)
Miss State d Alabama (Flipped a coin for this one but Vegas has Bama -8.5 which is suspiciously high to me)

Only a true Armchair Quarterbacking Fair Weather Fan could make picks like these or to you maybe its obvious
that "My Mind is Playing Tricks on me".

The Fan




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